One Big Beautiful Bill Act

Welcome to Visualize Policy

Explore the impact of the One Big Beautiful Bill Act (Public Law 119-21), passed by Congress and signed by the President in July 2025.

Use the map below to see how different counties across America are affected.

This bill has three major economic impacts:

Tax cuts extended from the first Trump administration
New tax cuts added to the bill
Program cuts to food stamps, Medicaid, and others

On this map you can:

View impacts at the county level
Filter by income groups (low, middle, high)
Examine different policy components (taxes, transfers)

Data source: Congressional Budget Office projections over 10 years (July 2025 - July 2034).

Hover over counties to see detailed policy impact data. Use the dropdowns to switch between income groups and metrics.

Key insight: Counties with more low-income residents see net losses (red), while counties with more high-income residents see net gains (green).

Methodology

This visualization shows the estimated county-level impacts of the One Big Beautiful Bill Act (Public Law 119-21), based on data from the Congressional Budget Office.

How the Data Was Created

County Income Distributions: We estimated the income distribution for each U.S. county using American Community Survey data combined with macroeconomic projections for 2025.
Lognormal Mixture Model: Each county's income distribution is modeled as a two-component lognormal mixture, fitted using Generalized Method of Moments (GMM).
CBO Policy Effects: The Congressional Budget Office provides estimates of how the bill affects different income groups nationally. We map each county's population to these income deciles.
Weighted Aggregation: County-level effects are computed by weighting CBO's marginal effects by the share of each county's population in each national income decile.

What the Metrics Mean

Net Effect: The total per-person impact, combining all tax and transfer changes.
Federal Tax Cut: Per-person reduction in federal taxes (positive = money saved).
Federal Transfer Change: Change in federal benefits received (negative = benefits cut).
State Tax: Estimated state-level fiscal response.
Other Spending: Other spending and revenue changes.

Income Groups

Low Income: Bottom 20% of national income distribution
Middle Income: Middle 60% of national income distribution
High Income: Top 20% of national income distribution

Data Sources

The non-partisan Congressional Budget Office is part of the legislative branch of the U.S. Government. They produced a report on the impact of the OBBA.

The Census Bureau runs the American Community Survey, providing summary data on income distribution and demographic categories at the county level.

We retrieved five-year averages of county level income distribution from 2014-2023
Census Bureau API

The Bureau of Labor Statistics conducts the monthly Current Population Survey used to compute the unemployment rate.

County level unemployment rates going back to 1990
BLS Local Area Unemployment Statistics

Technical Notes

All dollar amounts are annual per-person estimates totaled over the 10-year period from July 2025 to July 2034. Connecticut is shown using planning regions (which replaced counties in 2022) rather than the former county boundaries.

Visualization by Visualize Policy. Economic modeling by William T. Dickens.